Turkey-Syria rapprochement remains a ‘long, bumpy’ ride

Ankara, Aug 2 (IANS) Turkish and Syrian presidents have recently expressed optimism about potential meetings to improve bilateral relations, but experts caution that full diplomatic rapprochement remains uncertain given the decade-long rift.

Formal diplomatic relations between Turkey and Syria were severed following the onset of the Syrian civil war in 2011, with Turkey backing opposition groups against the Assad government. While there have been signs of thawing relations in recent years, substantial progress remains elusive.

In early July, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that his country would extend an invitation to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad “any time” for possible talks to mend ties between the two countries, emphasising his country’s desire to restore bilateral relations to their previous levels.

In response, Assad said in mid-July that “Syria insists that the meeting is necessary regardless of the level … and a meeting is being arranged at the security level by some intermediaries.” However, he also emphasised Syria’s key security concerns as a precondition.

On July 24, the Turkish newspaper ‘Aydinlik’ published a “draft roadmap” outlining potential terms for an agreement. If accepted, the roadmap would lead to a memorandum of understanding signed by Turkish and Syrian security officials, setting the stage for an official meeting between the two countries’ leaders.

Aydinlik claimed it obtained the draft from reliable “government sources” and that it includes provisions for Turkey to ban the activities of Syrian opposition groups on its territory and to return regions it controls in northern Syria before a complete Turkish withdrawal. In exchange, Syria would accept one to two million Syrian refugees currently in Turkey and ensure that a “moderate” Syrian opposition, acceptable to Damascus, participates in the government.

Despite the recent positive signals, experts warn that normalising relations will be a complex and prolonged process.

Gulru Gezer, a former Turkish diplomat and policy program director at the Ankara-based think tank TEPAV, said that “there is a long and bumpy road ahead” in the Turkey-Syria detente due to critical issues that need to be addressed between the neighbours.

“We haven’t had a dialogue since the outbreak of the civil war in Syria. That is why it will take time to fully, if possible, normalise relations,” Gezer said. “There are many issues that need to be agreed upon before the two sides get together. I don’t think we are there yet,” she added.

Amid Turkey’s economic downturn and rising anti-migrant sentiment, the public has been urging the government to facilitate the return of Syrian refugees. “The refugee issue is very sensitive in Turkey. Their potential return will take time,” Gezer noted.

Still, Gezer believed that progress on counter-terrorism and establishing a sustainable security environment could facilitate talks between Ankara and Damascus.

–IANS

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