IANS Analysis: China’s expanding engagement with Afghanistan

New Delhi, July 28 (IANS) In September 2023, China astonished the world by becoming the first nation to formally appoint an ambassador to Afghanistan after the Taliban seized power in 2021.

Subsequently, in January 2024, China again led the international community by officially recognising a representative of the Taliban regime as Bilal Karimi, a former Taliban spokesperson, presented his ambassadorial credentials to President Xi Jinping.

For a regime struggling to break free from international isolation and condemnation for its egregious treatment of women and minorities, it was a significant boon. Although Beijing promptly issued a clarifying statement emphasising that this diplomatic engagement did not equate to official recognition of the Taliban as Afghanistan’s legitimate rulers, China’s overall stance towards the Taliban suggests a de facto recognition aimed at strategic and economic benefits.

In 2016, China made a deal with Afghanistan, then under a US-backed administration, to include it in its expansive global infrastructure project, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Afghanistan’s strategic position at the junction of South, West, and Central Asia makes it valuable to China, which seeks to utilise this location to extend its reach and influence. Throughout the lengthy Afghan war, China was involved in reconstruction and infrastructure projects, as well as investments, without directly participating in the conflict. By 2013, China was responsible for up to 79 per cent of foreign investment in Afghanistan. Predictably, the new Taliban regime, in its quest for assistance to rebuild the country, has supported the former government’s stance on BRI and collaboration with China.

China’s interests in Afghanistan are primarily driven by strategic, security, and economic factors. Last year, the economically struggling Taliban joined the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a key component of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), hoping to revitalise Afghanistan’s economy. Besides expanding its geostrategic influence, Beijing is significantly motivated by the need to curb terrorist activities originating from Afghan territory. The most prominent of these is the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, a separatist group advocating for the secession of China’s southwestern province of Xinjiang.

Terrorist groups based in Afghanistan have a history of targeting Chinese infrastructure and personnel in neighbouring Pakistan, with the most recent incident being a suicide bombing in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa that killed five Chinese engineers. Pakistan attributed this attack to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, a terrorist organisation active along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. This pressing security concern has prompted China to mediate between Afghanistan and Pakistan, whose relations have deteriorated in recent years, in order to foster cooperation in counter-terrorism efforts.

The third significant factor driving China’s involvement in Afghanistan is the country’s wealth of natural resources, including oil, natural gas, and minerals such as lithium, copper, and rare earth elements. Due to the fragmented state of Afghanistan’s economy after decades of conflict-induced devastation, the country lacks both the financial resources and the capacity to extract its own abundant resources. This is where China steps in. Amidst the Taliban regime’s challenges with frozen assets, economic sanctions, and a lack of foreign aid, China views Afghanistan as a promising location for resource extraction and market access.

A year ago, the Chinese company Xinjiang Central Asia Petroleum and Gas Co. (CAPEIC) signed a long-term agreement with the Taliban to invest USD 540 million by 2026 for oil extraction in the Amu Darya basin. This has increased Afghanistan’s oil production to 1,100 metric tonnes per day. In April of the previous year, the Taliban’s Ministry of Mines and Petroleum announced an offer of USD 10 billion in investments from China’s Gochin for lithium extraction. The Ministry stated that this investment would create 120,000 direct and one million indirect jobs. Additionally, China has resumed work on the Aynak copper mine, the largest in Afghanistan and the second-largest in the world, with extraction rights for 30 years. Chinese investors and entrepreneurs are actively exploring business opportunities in Taliban-governed Afghanistan.

Thus, the void left by the US after two decades of conflict has been perceived by China as a chance to pursue its regional hegemonic aspirations. While the global community seeks methods to persuade the Taliban to reform its policies on women, minorities, and governance, China disguises its pragmatism and opportunism with the facade of non-interference. Recognising the opportunity, China swiftly moved to secure its strategic, security, and economic interests. Nevertheless, despite their economic vulnerability, the Taliban would be wise to exercise caution, considering China’s history of exploiting vulnerable nations, as evidenced by its dealings with Afghanistan’s neighbour, Pakistan.

–IANS

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